Rabu, 08 Agustus 2012

[E222.Ebook] Ebook Download The Chronicles of Riddick, by Alan Dean Foster

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The Chronicles of Riddick, by Alan Dean Foster

  • Sales Rank: #5106025 in Books
  • Published on: 2004
  • Original language: French
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: .83" h x 4.33" w x 7.01" l,
  • Binding: Mass Market Paperback

Most helpful customer reviews

60 of 63 people found the following review helpful.
Action, Adventure, and Space! What more could you ask for?!
By Kristen Otterson
I had this book on pre-order and got it as soon as it was available. I saw the movie first and read the book afterwards. The same day I got the book I read the whole thing because I couldn't put it down. Because director David Twohy had to cut out about 50 minutes of the movie this book helped a lot in filling in the blanks. It goes into MUCH greater detail in the characters and the Necromonger religion and basically everything. I'm a nerd so I like to know all of the details and back history of things and if you're a nerd too you'll love this book!

27 of 29 people found the following review helpful.
Suprisingly good!
By Amazon Customer
I purchased "The Chronicles of Riddick" novel on Tuesday June 1st, started reading it Wednesday June 2nd, and couldn't put it down until I finished it the following day! This is an extremely engrosing storyline that just grabbed my attention from the first page to the last, and other than a few main characters, including Richard Riddick, has absolutelly nothing to do with the first movie, Pitch Black, other than to use is as mearly a means of introduction to these characters. But don't for one second think that this is a bad thing. It is as if the director looked back at Pitch Black and correctly realized that Riddick as a character had much more development and depth than that sci-fi/horror flick could ever have allowed him to flesh out, especially if they followed the first films formula.
The creativity used to develop this new narrative is like an infusion of Arthur C. Clark, Frank Herbert, and Philip K. Dick, with a little George Lucas mixed in for good measure. Some might take this as a pretentous writer/director's attempt at stealing ideas from science fiction literature and claiming them to be his own, but I believe that David Twohy's imagination has been positively FUELED by these great storytellers to concoct a truely gratifying and entertaining tale full of wonder, danger, and intensity! Not since the original Matrix have I felt this kind of kinetic energy from a story, and I haven't even seen the film yet!!!! I feel that "Riddick" has the potential to be a blockbuster! I only hope that the film does do well so that the film makers are able to continue the "Chronicles"! As far as this book is concerned, I would highly recommend any lover of science fiction novels to pick it up and give it a whirl. It may not be as dense and intricatelly interwoven as some of the classics of this genre, but it still seems to have the ability to command your attention and stimulate your imagination!
Highly Recommended!!
-Jeremy

12 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Anti-hero versus Anti-life
By OAKSHAMAN
I read this book because I wanted to know more about what was behind the characters and concepts in the film. What was beneath those awe-inspiring visuals?

In the case of the Necromongers there was a wealth of information provided. Their entire history from the first Lord Marshal was laid bare- how Covu the scientist-philosopher founded the order based on the teaching that there was more than One God. It is told how he was tortured to the point that he could no longer feel pain- so his persecutors turned their attentions on his family... His escape and flight is told- and how at last he came to the Threshold of the glorious place that he called the UnderVerse. Here he found the new, almost magical strength to spread his crusade across the galaxy. The single goal of which was to bestow the blessing of death to all that lived in the universe. When the last living being was harvested then the Necromongers themselves would be promoted from quasi-dead to full dead...

In the case of Riddick, there wasn't a great deal more to learn. This was primarily because Riddick did not know all that much about his own origins- or what manner of being he truly was. It was pointed out that when survival called then his higher philosophical functions shut down in favor of instinct and perfect technical/tactical responses. In this, Riddick was the perfect survivor. His philosophy was that life was a bitch, you looked out for yourself or you didn't, and the galaxy was a cold, cold place. And yet there was something more to the man. You saw this in his standing behind his friends. You saw this when he was faced with certain death and something deep within, that even Riddick was unaware of, lashed out to do the impossible.

I don't think that I am spoiling anything here to say that Riddick becomes king, or Lord Marshal, by his own hand. After this could there be another film? I mean what would be left for him to accomplish? I think the answer lies in his first command- to order the fleet to the Threshold. After all, who is more qualified to storm the Gates of Hell than Riddick?

The soul of Kyra- and all the rest- will be rescued.

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Jumat, 03 Agustus 2012

[B706.Ebook] Free PDF Invisible Influence: The Hidden Forces that Shape Behavior, by Jonah Berger

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Invisible Influence: The Hidden Forces that Shape Behavior, by Jonah Berger

The New York Times bestselling author of Contagious explores the subtle, secret influences that affect the decisions we make—from what we buy, to the careers we choose, to what we eat—in this fascinating and groundbreaking work.

If you’re like most people, you think that your choices and behaviors are driven by your individual, personal tastes, and opinions. You wear a certain jacket because you liked the way it looked. You picked a particular career because you found it interesting. The notion that our choices are driven by our own personal thoughts and opinions is patently obvious. Right? Wrong.

Without our realizing it, other people’s behavior has a huge influence on everything we do at every moment of our lives, from the mundane to the momentous occasion. Even strangers have a startling impact on our judgments and decisions: our attitudes toward a welfare policy shift if we’re told it is supported by Democrats versus Republicans (even though the policy is the same in both cases).

But social influence doesn’t just lead us to do the same things as others. In some cases we conform, or imitate others around us. But in other cases we diverge, or avoid particular choices or behaviors because other people are doing them. We stop listening to a band because they go mainstream. We skip buying the minivan because we don’t want to look like a soccer mom.

In his surprising and compelling Invisible Influence, Jonah Berger integrates research and thinking from business, psychology, and social science to focus on the subtle, invisible influences behind our choices as individuals. By understanding how social influence works, we can decide when to resist and when to embrace it—and how we can use this knowledge to make better-informed decisions and exercise more control over our own behavior.

  • Sales Rank: #22486 in Books
  • Published on: 2016-06-14
  • Released on: 2016-06-14
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.37" h x .90" w x 5.50" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 272 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
especially his proposition that most of us are pretty good at noticing when others succumb to social pressure
By Educ Prof
“The notion that our own personal thoughts and opinions drive our choices seems so obvious that it is not even worth mentioning. Except that it’s wrong.” (Inside book jacket)

Jonah Berger cites his own research, research done by his colleagues, and other published research as well, illustrating their findings with interesting, surprising, and even startling, examples.

As someone who believes that he is a logical and data-informed decision-maker, the author’s assertions were not always welcomed by me, especially his proposition that most of us are pretty good at noticing when others succumb to social pressure, but that almost all of us cannot see the same effect in ourselves (p. 5). Yet, his arguments were persuasive and the information is, in fact, good to know. If our decisions are, indeed, shaped by certain social groups or circumstances, then awareness of that fact can certainly be helpful. Conversely, if you wish to influence other’s decisions; e.g. lifestyle choices, voting, purchasing, or support for a particular policy; this book helps one consider effective ways to do so.

The book is slightly complicated, but that is because people are complicated and Berger does not oversimplify. Yet, the author’s reasoning and writing style are clear, interesting, and compelling. There are some truly fascinating findings and conclusions to be found throughout the book. I anticipate that this book will, at the very least, become optional reading for my doctoral students who are interested in becoming more effective leaders.

32 of 35 people found the following review helpful.
Here are the “simple, subtle, and other surprising ways that others affect our behavior”
By Robert Morris
Actually, the invisibility to which the book’s title refers is — in my opinion — a misnomer. Influence in this instance is not so much a matter of others deceiving us (although that may be a motive) as it is a matter of our failure to recognize that influence when it occurs. We don’t “see” it only because we don’t recognize and understand it for what it is.

Jonah Berger shares what he has learned during fifteen years of research that involved countless surveys, experiments, and interviews and additional surveys, experiments, and interviews based on what he learned from their predecessors. As is also true of all other sciences, the science of social influence is evidence-driven. Berger is determined to do all he can to prepare as many people as possible to become mindful of the nature and extent of influence that others have and that was not previously recognized.

As I began to work my way through the narrative, I was again reminded of a book I read years ago, Denial of Death, in which Ernest Becker acknowledges the inevitability of physical death but asserts that there is another form of death than CAN be denied: that which occurs when we become wholly preoccupied with fulfilling others’ expectations of us. (I also thought of Becker’s book when I first read Robert Cialdini’s classic, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion.) Why do people try to influence others' behavior? Berger suggests a number of different motives that, I think, tend to fall into one of two categories: those that are altruistic and those that are self-serving. It is important to add that not all influence initiated with the purest of intentions is necessarily good advice. Also, at least some influence can be of benefit to everyone involved.

To what extent are those who attempt to influence others fully aware of doing that? To what extent are the “others” fully aware of that influence? Why are some people more receptive than others? This is an immensely complicated subject, certainly much more than I realized prior to reading Berger’s book. As he explains, “Social influence has a huge impact on behavior. But by understanding how it works, we can harness its power. We can avoid its downsides and take advantage of its benefits.” That is why he wrote this book.

These are among the dozens of passages of greatest interest and value to me, also listed to suggest the scope of Berger’s coverage:

o Familiarity (Pages 10-11, and 160-162)
o Mimicry (30-35)
o Harry Potter books (44-46)
o Music website experiment (46-49)
o Parking preferences (49-52)
o Differentiation (63-97)
o Birth order (64-70)
o Social class (86-96)
o Signals (101-128)
o Academic performance and race (117-120 and 141-142)
o Novelty (164-171)
o The Goldilocks Effect (166-171)
o Optimal distinction (171-181)
o Social facilitation (189-196)
o Winning and losing in sports (204-208 and 211-218)
o Low-income housing (223-229)

It remains for each reader to ask and then answer questions such as these: “Where do you see influence? How do others around you shape your life and how are you shaping theirs? Understanding these often invisible [or previously unrecognized] influences can make us all better off.” Of course, the scope and depth of impact of the information, insights, and counsel that Berger provides will vary from one reader to the next but my own opinion is that this material can be of substantial [begin italics] practical value [end italics] to parents and their children as well as to supervisors and their direct reports, to classroom teachers and their students as well as elected public officials and their constituents. In fact, that is only a partial list. Near the top of any list of benefits would be substantially increased self-awareness. More specifically, developing the “growth mindset” to which Carol Dweck and the “mindfulness” to which Ellen Langer have devoted so much productive attention in their own work.

Social influence that is unrecognized by no means has less impact; if anything, it may have greater impact because none of those involved is aware of it. What I call “enlightened influence” has almost unlimited potentiality for good or ill. The choice is ours, once we fully realize that we have that choice and fully appreciate its implications. Thank you, Jonah Berger, for increasing and enriching our enlightenment.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Be Influenced by Invisible Influence
By Chris Heivly
What I love most about Invisible Influence is the ease in which Jonah explains why we do what we do. Based on his research as well as research from studies over the past 100 years, Jonah artfully brings you on a journey through the choices we make every day.

From why hurricanes influence kids names to why married people look alike, you will find an story that crawls inside your brain. Do me a favor, read the book and then rethink how you and your business attempt to influence customer behavior.

Then read the part about Calvin Coolidge and his wife - my favorite new story that will go into my storytelling repertoire immediately.

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Senin, 30 Juli 2012

[E414.Ebook] Ebook Download Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur Vol. 2: Cosmic Cooties, by Amy Reeder, Brandon Montclare

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She's been so busy worrying about the Terrigen Cloud that would turn her Inhuman, Luna Lafayette might instead fall prey to...Cosmic Cooties?! Because when a new boy moves to town from far, far away, he's oddly interested in her. Meanwhile, the most wanted T-Rex in NYC is running out of places to lie low - a problem that won't get any easier when our darling duo undergo a body swap! It's a big change up that will see Luna spending a freaky Friday (or whatever day it happens to be) as Devil Dinosaur, and vice versa! Will Luna evade capture? Will DD scrape a passing grade on his test? And who exactly is Moon Girl's new 9-year-old archnemesis, Kid Kree? As his plans unfold, there'll be major revelations about Luna's abilities!

COLLECTING: MOON GIRL AND DEVIL DINOSAUR 7-12

  • Sales Rank: #19415 in Books
  • Published on: 2017-01-10
  • Released on: 2017-01-10
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 10.25" h x .25" w x 6.75" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 136 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Truly enjoyable
By Original_Patricia
I started out reading to one of the grandkids, a four-year old. She was captivated. It wasn't just the pictures, seeing a SuperHero that looks like her, but the story really engaged her also. She followed the comic much better than the story in a regular book with a picture per page. It was the amount of detail that went into each frame that enabled her to follow the story so easily.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Love this story!
By Vicky Peterson
Great story!
Already read and need to get the next one!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Lunella is the best.
By Kindle Customer
Such a fun book. Love the character. And one of my other favorite teenage Marvel heroes makes an appearance in this book too!

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Senin, 23 Juli 2012

[F775.Ebook] Ebook Download Groundbreaking Scientific Experiments, Inventions, and Discoveries of the Ancient World (Groundbreaking Scientific Experiments, Inventions

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Groundbreaking Scientific Experiments, Inventions, and Discoveries of the Ancient World (Groundbreaking Scientific Experiments, Inventions

  • Published on: 1707
  • Binding: Hardcover

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Selasa, 17 Juli 2012

[M634.Ebook] PDF Download The Social History of Art (Volume 1: Prehistoric Times/Ancient-Oriental/Urban Cultures/Greece&Rome/The Middle Ages), by Arnold Hauser

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The Social History of Art (Volume 1: Prehistoric Times/Ancient-Oriental/Urban Cultures/Greece&Rome/The Middle Ages), by Arnold Hauser



The Social History of Art (Volume 1: Prehistoric Times/Ancient-Oriental/Urban Cultures/Greece&Rome/The Middle Ages), by Arnold Hauser

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The Social History of Art (Volume 1: Prehistoric Times/Ancient-Oriental/Urban Cultures/Greece&Rome/The Middle Ages), by Arnold Hauser

First published in 1951 Arnold Hausers commanding work presents an account of the development and meaning of art from its origins in the Stone Age through to the Film Age. Exploring the interaction between art and society, Hauser effectively details social and historical movements and sketches the frameworks in which visual art is produced.This new edition provides an excellent introduction to the work of Arnold Hauser. In his general introduction to The Social History of Art, Jonathan Harris asseses the importance of the work for contemporary art history and visual culture. In addition, an introduction to each volume provides a synopsis of Hausers narrative and serves as a critical guide to the text, identifying major themes, trends and arguments.

  • Sales Rank: #4300208 in Books
  • Published on: 1985-09-12
  • Released on: 1957-09-12
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 7.75" h x 4.25" w x .75" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 267 pages

Review
"Unrivalled in its scope and ambition, Arnold Hauser's classic study can be placed alongside the writings of Schapiro, Wolfflin, and Panofsky as a critical contribution to the development of the history of art as discipline."
-Alan Wallach, College of William and Mary
"This is an exciting, an irritating, a scholarly and an absolutely indispensable book."
-Art News and Reviews
"Hauser's work repays reading because it was and remains the only comprehensive scholarly synthesis of the history of art from the perspective of historical materialism."
-Whitney Davies

About the Author
Arnold Hauser was born in Hungary and studied literature and the history of art at the universities of Budapest, Vienna, Berlin and Paris. In 1921 he returned to Berlin to study economics and sociology under Ernst Troeltsch. From 1923 to 1938 he lived in Vienna where he began work on The Social History of Art. He lived in London from 1938 until 1977, when he returned to his native Hungary. He died in Budapest in 1978. Jonathan Harris is Senior Lecturer in Art History and Critical Theory at the University of Keele. He is the author of Federal Art and National Culture: The Politics of Identity in New Deal America (1995), co-author of Modernism in Dispute: Art Since The Forties (1993) and co-editor of Art in Modern Culture: An Anthology of Critical Texts (1992).

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Jumat, 06 Juli 2012

[I805.Ebook] Fee Download Book Club: A Literature-Based Curriculum (2nd Edition), by Taffy E. Raphael, Laura S. Pardo, Kathy Highfield

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Book Club: A Literature-Based Curriculum (2nd Edition), by Taffy E. Raphael, Laura S. Pardo, Kathy Highfield

Book Club: A Literature-Based Curriculum (2nd Edition), by Taffy E. Raphael, Laura S. Pardo, Kathy Highfield



Book Club: A Literature-Based Curriculum (2nd Edition), by Taffy E. Raphael, Laura S. Pardo, Kathy Highfield

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Book Club: A Literature-Based Curriculum (2nd Edition), by Taffy E. Raphael, Laura S. Pardo, Kathy Highfield

Completely revised and updated, this new edition brings fresh insights to the popular Book Club program. Based on the latest classroom research, it helps teachers engage all students with age-appropriate literature, and its unique approach to student-led book discussions is supported by a full range of literacy activities.

A clear overview of the Book Club program is supplemented by new chapters on comprehension, writing, assessment, and classroom management. Complete thematic teaching units for four novels include related readings, unit projects, and correlations to language arts and social studies standards. An additional multi-book unit demonstrates how to teach with several novels at once for more lively and engaging classroom discussions. Innovative blackline masters support writing, comprehension, and assessment.

  • Sales Rank: #500580 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: Small Planet Communications, Inc. - Lawrence, MA 01840
  • Published on: 2002-04
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 10.75" h x 8.25" w x 1.00" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 304 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

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0 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
Book Club - a cheaply bound book
By Books for the Kids
While this book has wonderful information and assessment sheets that could be copied and used, this $25.00 paperback started to fall apart by the sixth week of school. It was one of four texts we were working with, so it wasn't from overuse, and there were eight to ten other people in the class experiencing the same thing. The publisher ought to be ashamed of themselves. A book like this is meant to be used often as a reference for a classroom teacher. Instead it's useless because it's falling apart. Shame on you all.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
The meat inside the book...
By taffholter
While I agree that the book did not do a great job of staying together, the fact is the units within the book are phenomenal! There are higher level questions in each chapter that really cause students to stop and analyze the author's writing. I have used many of the units with my 5th grade students and have been very pleased as to where our discussions head. In addition, these authors really help the students discuss the themes such as "living forever", "racism", etc. I think that with the Common Core Standards hitting us as educators, teachers will be looking for resources of this caliber.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great condition!
By Alaina Dincher
Great condition when i got it! Use if often in my classroom for fourth graders! I especially love using it for Hatchet!

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Selasa, 26 Juni 2012

[O893.Ebook] Ebook Cycles: The Science of Prediction, by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

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Cycles: The Science of Prediction, by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

Cycles: The Science of Prediction, by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin



Cycles: The Science of Prediction, by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

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Cycles: The Science of Prediction, by Edward R. Dewey, Edwin F. Dakin

In 1947 Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin published their book Cycles: The Science of Prediction which argued the United States economy was driven by four cycles of different length. Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Dewey understood his cycle theory to be capable of understanding what the market is going to do and of predicting what may come.

  • Sales Rank: #680113 in Books
  • Published on: 2013-11-13
  • Original language: English
  • Dimensions: 9.00" h x .62" w x 6.00" l,
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 274 pages

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34 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
Short and insightful
By Benjamin Espen
Cycles is a book from the youth of modern statistics. The field was young, and progress was rapid. You can taste the optimism. The regular abuse of statistics was still in the future, and calculations were simple because you had to do them by hand. Wonderful new applications were just lying about, awaiting an intrepid analyst to make use of them. So, someone applied statistics in a new way to the world of economics. Dewey and Dakin wished to be able to more accurately predict the growth of whole nations, and the businesses within them. The authors were attempting to add rigor to the field of political economics, regarding it as hitherto little better than a voodoo science.

The debt of the authors to those whose names, equations, and graphs line the pages of this book -- and to many others unnamed -- is without end. Theirs is the pioneering work that is moving economics out of the blind alley where it stood for many years, so that it can take its rank as a true science. Cycles p. xii

Cycles is primarily about sigmoidal growth curves and the application of Fourier analysis to time-series data, with examples chosen primarily from economics. That is a pretty terse characterization, so let me unpack it.

Sigmoidal or logistic growth curves were first suggested by Pierre Verhulst in 1838 to describe the growth of any population of living organisms. The sigmoidal function has a characteristic 's' shape that describes how a population starts off slowly, then grows quickly, then slows its rate of growth until it reaches the maximum carrying capacity of its environment.

From animal populations, it was a short leap to applying the logistic curve to human populations. There are some very interesting graphs in the book. One I especially liked was the sigmoidal fit to the population of the United States, with a predicted equilibrium population of 200 million or so. [p. 15] Dewey and Dakin wanted to extend the ecological discovery of the logistic curve into the world of business. Using sales or production data, Dewey and Dakin tried to systematize the business cycle by analogizing a business to an organism. The sales or production data were plotted as time-series, and then a logistic curve was fit to the data. This works extremely well, and a plethora of examples are given in the book. One of the more interesting graphs is created by plotting a generic logistic curve, and then placing an industry on the curve in the place where the slopes [rate of growth] match, thus creating a simple visual representation of the 'age' of an industry. This actually works pretty well, with television far down at the 'young' end of the spectrum, oil in the middle, and horse buggies at the 'old' end. [p. 49]

Looking at the rate of growth, rather than absolute growth, is key to Dewey and Dakin's method. By doing so, one can more clearly see changes in the curve than with absolute numbers, especially if the scale gets very large. This is easily done by means of a semi-log or ratio plot. When one does so, it becomes clear that the rate of growth is continually decreasing until it approaches zero.

Time-series data are any kind of data plotted against time. This could be the aforementioned population growth curve, or stock prices, or even the tides. Most anything can be turned into a time-series simply by graphing the data in the order they were collected.

Fourier analysis is the the really fun one of the lot. Joseph Fourier discovered that most any repeating pattern could be created by the addition of a number of sine and cosine functions using the superposition principle. This can be used on phenomena like sound waves to break them down into a collection of pure tones. One can then recreate the original sound by combining the pure tones. This techinique is very useful for waves of all types, but it turns out to have more general applications.

Next come the eponymous cycles. A great deal of the book is devoted to analyzing cycles that can be observed in nature and business, with periods of 54, 18, 9, and 3.5 years. Various phenomena are related to these cycles. For example, the 18 year cycle is identified as the real estate cycle in the United States. Common stocks are said to rise and fall with a rhythm of 9 years, while industrial production moves in 3.5 year waves. The data presented here is certainly intriguing, but I remain skeptical. It would be an interesting exercise to see whether the cycles have continued for the last 60 years since the book was updated.

At least part of the reason I am skeptical about the cycles is the use of moving averages, which are one of a class of statistical tools known as 'smoothers'. Smoothers are very dangerous statistically, because their use before analysis can result in inflated R^2 and p-values. Smoothers work well for visualization however, and that is their primary use in Cycles. Dewey and Dakin did not compute any statistics for their cycles, probably because the mathematics was too tedious at the time. This is now more readily possible, but the same computer power makes it possible to diagnose the failures of smoothers by means of Monte Carlo analysis.

With the general growth curve and the cycles covered individually, Dewey and Dakin then show how to combine them, cycles riding on trends. This is probably the most interesting part of the book. It is analogous to learning to think in three dimensions instead of two. It is relatively easy to imagine a trend or a cycle continuing as they have before, but to put them together is really interesting. Even more so when you have several different cycles all together. This is where Fourier analysis can be really helpful, but allowing you to isolate different cycles from a mass of data.

Once this is done, we can attempt to apply all this knowledge. The ultimate goal is to discern whether an up or downtick in business is temporary or permanent. Business strategy is very different between weathering a dry spell and preparing for a long downward slide. Dewey and Dakin went so far as to predict in the first edition of their work that American business would experience a temporary downturn immediately after the Second World War, but that business would pick up afterward and a new era of prosperity would follow. In this, they disagreed with the majority of economists at the time, who reasoned that the war had cured the Depression, but that with the war over the Depression would return, and millions of returning GIs would find as little work as they had when the war started.

Dewey and Dakin turned out to be right, which is why this book is interesting. It was reissued in 1950 with a postscript containing additional data to bolster the claims of the original volume. I surmise that the book has had some influence, because rate of growth has since become a key business indicator, so much so that businesses dread a decrease in the growth rate, even if profits are healthy. Growth just has to slow down, not even stop, for a company's stock to plunge in value. This leads to the pursuit of growth at any cost, the attempt to start a new logistic curve instead of simply riding out the current one.

An interesting case study of this is the Wilkinson Sword Company. You may never have heard of them, because they stopped making swords in large quantities long ago, and stopped making swords entirely by 2005. What they have made since are things like beach furniture and lawn mowers, been bought and sold multiple times, and today they make the Schick Quattro. A fine consumer product, to be sure, but you cannot buy their excellent swords any longer. This is a lot to lay on Dewey and Dakin, but this is what immediately came to mind.

This book also occasioned a burst of massive skepticism on my part. Chapter II presents a series of logistic curves fit to the populations of various nations. The curve fits reasonably well in all cases, which means that birth rates tend towards equilibrium all on their own. A modern truism is that increasing education and standards of living lead to a decrease in the birthrate. However, it rather seems that birthrates would be trending down regardless, because that is just what they do after an initial burst of procreation. All the curves in this book predate any kind of emancipation of women or effective birth control, so clearly something else was at play. I do not know that increasing education and decreasing birthrate are unrelated, but on reflection I do not know that anyone has ever shown them to be related either. It simply fits the grand metanarrative of Western modernity, and so correlation is more than sufficient in most eyes.

This was a very interesting book, well worth a quick read, for it is blessedly short. The graphs in particular are beautifully done, well scaled, not too busy. Dewey and Dakin also take up some interesting asides, including the question of whether scientific innovation is slowing down [p. 218], and the metahistory of Spengler as applied to Chinese dynastic cycles [p. 201]. However, this book is much less dense, and more readable than most of the more advanced tomes that have addressed the same subjects, and that is a worthy accomplishment.

24 of 25 people found the following review helpful.
Harmonics of Economic Cycles
By Elliot Malach
This book was written in the 1940s, out of a study commissioned by Herbert Hoover, designed to find out the cause of the Great Depression. I actually found this book after it was quoted in other publications. The information Dewey and Dakin discovered is timeless and incredibly interesting. Some of the correlations will blow you away.

The bottom line is that there are definite cycles of varying lengths, which affect all business, growth, the stock market, weather, etc. This should come as no surprise, since our solar system and the universe are built upon harmonics, which are nothing more than overlapping wave cycles. They were not looking for the "why" booms and busts occurred; their focus was on the "when."

What is interesting is that I extrapolated their cycles to the present time period, and our current recession/depression fits in perfectly with the cycle lows of the 54 year, 9 year and 18.3 year cycles. According to their work, the bottom for the real estate cycle would have hit around September 2007. That got my attention.

Even though the book is mathematically oriented, it is very easy to understand for someone without a background in economics or math. The fact that this book was published in 1947 is actually a positive, because we can now look back and see how valid their information really is!

10 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
Cycles: The Science of Prediction Review
By Leon P. Hanekom
This book presents a very good idea of how Cycles affects human actions and are strongly recommended for all Stock Brokers, Business People and People affected by behaviour of the Statistical Mean of Civilization. The contents of the book is presented in an excellent way to convey the message to the reader and make him/her fully understand how cyclical all human actions are. It is strongly recommended for any reader from leasure readers to professionals in the relevant industries and is a permanent addition to my bookshelf collection.

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